werwolfs 03.05.2011 в 23:02

До річниці пакту Януковича-Медвєдєва

Оце потрапили мені на око дані по видобутку природного газу в Україні (офіційні дані).

 9d2408ad9355.jpg

 Дивлюся я на них, та й гадаю: "Чому з кожним подорожчанням 1000 м³ газу власний видобуток все менше й менше? Невже купити виходить дешевше? Невже неможливо "викачувати" круглий рік 59,3 млн. м³ щодоби аби 1837,9 млн. м³ щомісяця?" 

Не можу зайти іншої відповіді ніж умисне утримання України на російській газовій голці. Можливо фахівці з видобутку газу допоможуть знайти іншу відповідь?



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Комментариев: 22
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Ответ правильный. именно так!
А ліцензію закордонному інвестору з його тезхнологіями дадуть? По чесному. Як у них принято... Знав би ти чим наші бурять і їхні...
Так питання не в новому бурінні, а викачуванні з пробурених свердловин. Не бачив докладних даних за попередні роки, але з наведених даних видно, що влітку видобуток зменшується, взимку зростає. Тобто, власний видобуток використовується для покриття недостачі в імпортному газі, а не навпаки. Вважаю ви не будете стверджувати, що свердловина (родовище) виснажується за півроку, а за наступні півроку відновлюється. Принаймні я не можу підібраи іншого пояснення для наведеної динаміки. А взагалі то, я і намагався почути спеціалістів.
Попит породжує пропозицію. Влітку попит на газ менший, тож і видобувають його менше. Споживання газу дуже нерівномірне протягом року. А родовище, це свого роду акумулятор. Підземні сховища газу як раз і побудовані на виснажених. Я спочатку подумав, що не сезонні коливання, а загальна негативна тенденція цікавить.
Щодо попиту й пропозиції, то не підходить. Експортований з РФ газ постачається круглий рік в однакових (відносно) об'ємах. Висновок роблю по опосередкованим даним (сплата НАК та квартальна ціна імпортного газу). Я також спочатку "грішив" на коливання сезонного споживання. Потім згадав про домовленість Януковича - знижка за одиницю при умові збереження абсолютних виплат РФ. Тобто, "продам дешевше, якщо купиш більше". Окрім цього, "знижка" йде в залік оренди бази ЧФ (відкладений розрахунок). Загалом, єдиний невідомий для мене фактор - особливості технології видобутку. Решта пояснень не витримують прискіпливого аналізу.
Все правильно, але літом він закачується в ПСГ, а зимою звідти відбирається і йде споживачам. Тому наша ГТС і є дуже цінною для Газпрому, бо вона дозволяє експлутувати родовища при відносно рівномірному відборі газу, а різницю споживання гасити у нас в ПСГ.
Не заперечую. От і виникло питання: ЧОМУ експлуатація українських родовищ має такий вигляд як на графіку.
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